Why Implement CMCO in Selangor area?

Update @ 29/Oct/2020

I am very glad to continue to track the latest COVID-19 cases in Selangor – KL – Putrajaya area.

Let us see the summary for the last 5 days, 25/Oct- 29/Oct.  There is a total of 693 cases within this period.  Compare to last five day, 20/Oct-24/Oct, 620 cases, we are seeing a mild increase in term of the trend.

Even though the Malaysia government is working very hard and put on a lot of emphasize to ensure people follow the SOP, but then we yet to see the improvement result.

The MKN (Maglis Keselamatan Negara)announced about implemented CMCO for Selangor, KL and Putrajaya since 13-Oct-2020 for 2 weeks time.  I heard a lot of people saying the rationale about the implementation of CMCO, yet to read any article to support the action with data.

We have learned a substantial knowledge since the COVID-19 outbreak, and today, I would also want to write something about my interpretation after analyzing with the data.

The high population area – Selangor, KL and Putrajaya

Selangor, KL and Putrajaya would be the area with high population and mobility throughout Malaysia.  I would rather prefer to use “Klang Valley” instead of Selangor for the data analysis; unfortunately, I am having difficulty to have breakdown data.

In this case, in this analysis, I use Selangor state data instead of Klang Valley.  For users who could obtain Klang Valley infection data, you could follow the same analysis method to make your own judgment.

Malaysian has worked very hard to flatten the COVID-19 infection growth, unfortunately, the count shut up since end Sep.  Even though the authority department did not specify the root cause for the spike but everybody knows why.

The COVID-19 Infection Trend

The Malaysia MOH published a daily infection count, let us carry out some analysis study base on the data.

I have gathered the data and breakdown for the individual state since 30/Sep till 14/Oct, total 15 days.  Let us focus on the Selangor, KL and Putrajaya area.  Instead of looking at the daily fluctuation, let us looks into 5 days average.  We are able to dissect the 15days into 3 time-sections, let me walk you through.

  • 1st time-section (30/Sep – 4/Oct) = 152 Infection cases
  • 2nd time-section (5/Oct – 9/Oct) = 202 Infection cases
  • 3rd time-section (10/Oct – 14/Oct) = 358 Infection cases

From the above 3 time-sections, we could easily conclude that the COVID-19 infection count in this area is in increasing trend.

Is CMCO necessary?

Base on the above data, obviously the trend is setting at an upward trend.  There are a few risk bases on the situation:

  • Base on the SIR model, the infection count shall grow in an exponential manner.
  • The COVID-19 detected area is sporadic throughout the entire KL and Klang Valley.
  • The COVID-19 already spread in the community.

Some actions and enforcement have to be in place in order to slow down the infection rate.  Under these circumstances, the government has no other choice but to announce the CMCO.  Meanwhile, the government also allow the factory to continue production.  This is something like check and balance.  I would name as relax-CMCO.  Even though it is relaxing, but it better than none.

Nobody is very sure about the result of this relax-CMCO until the government publishes more data for subsequence days.  We can continue using this method to make severity judgment.

Currently, the government is increasing the COVID19 swab test screening ability on the suspect, this will lead to more infection count for 4th time-section (15/Oct – 19/Oct).  Hopefully, the screening will help to achieve a reduce trend on 5th time-section (20/Oct – 24/Oct).

I will continue to monitor the COVID-19 infection count for Selangor, KL and Putrajaya area, will give you another update from time to time.  Stay alert and stay safe.

Update @ 19-Oct-2020
CMCO infected count trend chartToday, we have the 4th Section-Time data ready, date 15/Oct – 19/Oct.  Within these 5 days, we recorded a total of 600 infected incidents of COVID-19.
Compare to the 3rd Section-Time, the infected count increase from 358 cases to 600 cases.  Don’t get too excited from these 2 numbers, even though the infected count is increasing but the rate does maintain per the SIR model.
Our Health DG may have already stated that a reducing in the Ro level, but I would say the reduction was not significant.
By comparing the data, I have not convinced any reducing trend after the 1st week of CMCO in Selangor and KL area.

Update @ 24-Oct-2020
We have another 5 days data.  I just have I the 5 days data plotted on an excel trend chart.

For the past-5-days, we have recorded a total of 620 COVID19 infected cases within the period of 20/Oct – 24/Oct.  The infected count for past 5 days is higher than the previous 5 days, 600 counts.  However, the momentum is much slower if we could like at the chart.  This is a good signal to indicate that the infected trend is flattening now.

This is a good sign showing we are in the right track but how much time we need in order to practically bring down the total infected count in the region?  Before our medical health system still able to sustain.

Talk to you for the next 5 days.

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